Abstract
Change
starts in the minds of marketing and design departments. The two will forever
argue who first dreamed up the idea. The innovation has to be wanted and be
possible to supply so demand and production are equally involved. This article
summarises changes taking place now in 2019 and predicts what is coming.
The purpose
of this article is to help school leavers see their prospects and can be read
alongside the articles I have written on careers and decision making.
1. Contents
· Change
· Medical
· Security
· Energy
· Food
· Packaging
· Transport
· Artificial Intelligence
· Building and Construction
· Banking
1.1. Limited change
· Entertainment
· Clothing
· Family
· Education
· Water
· Space travel
· Retailing
1.2. Medical
The big
shift in the medical sector is the realisation that progress with
pharmaceuticals has come to an end. The understanding that the body is
biochemically dependant is now questioned because the electrical properties of
the body are known to have more fundamental influences on health and disease.
Drugs are not curing cancer, diabetes, damaged nerves and brain diseases
whereas treatments using pressure and electrical fields are working.
This shift
is good news for patients, will reduce time spent in hospital and allow doctors
and nurses to be redeployed.
I have
always argued that the government minister most responsible for health is not
the Minister of Health but the Minister of Transport. Most travel is local
between home, work and shops. These journeys are ideal exercise opportunities.
They can be done by bicycle providing traffic allows the riders to be safe.
When cars replaced horses a hundred years ago, bicycles were quickly relegated
to those who, it was said, could afford nothing better and cars were given
priority. This is now changing with people finding that cycling is enjoyable
and exercise is the best medicine. Redesigning roads and lanes in favour of
cycling is already happening by following The Netherlands.
1.3. Security
Governments
want to control everything, especially the people to know where they are and
what they are doing. Whether the government is elected or an imposition makes
no difference. The more control, the less the opportunity for people to
disobey.
Security
tagging already exists for pets. Some people can have electronic chips inserted
into their body, usually between thumb and forefinger, that are recognised by
scanners at doorways. The system can be expanded for banking and border checks.
The deal
will be that without an implanted chip; a person will not get access to medical
healthcare. That this is extortion will be overridden by the argument that the
government is helping the people. It places the medical profession in the same
category as the military, to fulfil government wishes. To a large extent, this
already exists with medicine being the most regulated industry in the world.
The pharmaceutical companies influence the government regulators and create a
commercial environment suitable for their products.
Vehicle
number plates are scanned and checked whilst the vehicles are in motion. The
hardware and software have established the principle of tracking. Freedom of
movement will give place to what will be called protected travel.
With
everyone identified and located by massive computers, the role of the police
changes to enforcement of identity. Supporting them will be individuals wanting
medical treatment. In some totalitarian countries, that deal can be extended to
free supplies of food. There will be accusations of slavery.
The
scanning and tracking infrastructure is being installed and is called 5G, a
powerful radio signal system initially provided for mobile telephones and
extendable to all wireless communications. The electro-magnetic fields
generated by 5G harm the immune system and cause illness further persuading
people to need doctors and hospitals.
1.4. Energy
There is
more energy available above the ground than below. What is below the ground has
been stored there geologically from earlier times when the sun’s energy created
life that was left to decay and be submerged, covered and revealed millions of
years later as coal and oil. Heat inside the earth can be tapped as an energy
source but as it is usually where the earth’s crust is unstable it is an
unreliable source on a large scale. Geothermal pumps are already in use for
heating buildings. Water is pumped into the ground where it gains heat and is
then passed by under floor pipes around the building.
The
political map of the world is shaped by energy supply and consumption. The oil
wells of the middle east make the countries’ rulers rich and volatile with the
consuming countries of Europe their dependants. Recently the country producing
most oil is the USA from fractured shale rocks, a process that seems able to
stop and start according to the oil price. The OPEC group of oil producing
countries try to restrict supply and conserve the valuable oil to raise its
price. That encourages the American shale gas and oil producers to increase
output with the result being a balancing act saving the world from high prices
and shortages. This seesaw takes place with the looming increase in renewable
energy creating doubt amongst investors about the long-term profitability of
oil extraction.
It is not
just that renewable energy is becoming competitive, it is also that energy
consumption is better managed with improved insulation for buildings, more fuel-efficient
vehicles and planes and the climate change issue bringing coal and oil into
disrepute to encourage politicians to favour renewable energy.
The
industrial revolution depended on energy from burning. It used ancient, stored
energy which is finite in supply and releases carbons that are causing current
global warming. Above ground energy is not stored; it is freely available from
the sun, wind and flowing water, especially hydro-electric power (HEP).
Technical means of harnessing this energy are improving to the stage where it
can be economically competitive with coal and oil. It is also infinite and not
damaging to the atmosphere. Norway and Scotland with mountains and regular
rainfall have used HEP for decades. Africa could benefit from the same but
rivers cross national boundaries and are needed for irrigation, not just their
vertical fall, so political issues arise.
Siemens, a
large German engineering company, had a plan to install solar panels across the
Sahara Desert. The electricity would flow by direct current, not alternating,
to avoid voltage drops, along many power lines to Europe. Huge battery storage
would be needed to balance day production with night consumption. Off shore
wind farms in the North Sea and Atlantic fringe were part of the equation and
Siemens are now active in the North Sea from their base in Hull in Yorkshire.
The Sahara project was massive but technically feasible on a large scale. The
fundamental problem seemed to be political. It transcended political borders of
unstable countries and investors could see destruction wrought by groups
wanting to attack Europe by usurping their source of energy. The same already
applies to pipelines crossing continents. They are always in danger of a
terrorist attack.
Large
overhead power lines cause illness, especially cancer, with their powerful
electro-magnetic fields. It is far better to have small scale, local
electricity generation powered by the sun, wind and biomass. By biomass we
include crops grown to burn which, by growing more crops, maintains the carbon
balance. It also includes methane from sewage and rubbish. These plants are
already in use and more will be installed.
It has to
be emphasised that nuclear power is unacceptable. The only reason it is used is
desperation by governments unable to find an answer to the rising costs of oil
and the pollution of coal. Nuclear, be it fission or fusion, is very expensive,
incurs risks that persist almost indefinitely and requires power networks to
distribute the electricity. Alternative sources of electricity exist and will
become prevalent as improvements are made reducing costs and improving
reliability.
A powerful,
predictable and reliable source of energy is the sea; tides and waves. Quite
why this has not attracted the same enthusiasm as wind and solar is unclear.
There are now corrosion resistant metals to withstand the brine and plentiful
designs to harness the movements of water. Tidal barrages across estuaries gain
support and are then criticised for disrupting fish migration although that can
be solved with channels as used on river dams. Perhaps wind and solar is easier
and when they have all been installed, attention may turn to the sea. After
all, it is in the sea on the continental shelf that the largest wind farms are
being erected. Rising sea levels are resisted around cities on estuaries with
barrages in which water driven electricity generators can be installed; they
run both ways on a rising tide or a falling tide.
1.5. Food
The species
of Homo Sapiens is a plague. It has grown in numbers and inflicts harm on other
flora and fauna either by eating them or harming their environment causing many
to become extinct. This nasty species is us. Our success is in many ways due to
our ability to survive on a varied diet. We are able to digest different foods
and enjoy the variety.
When human
populations began expanding in the 19th century, early economists
such as T.R. Malthus predicted that the supply of food would reach a limit insufficient
to sustain the population. That has not yet happened although his observation
that food supply is finite is true. Increases in plant yields have kept pace
with demand and improved transport has distributed food from areas of low cost to
where it commands the highest price. This economically efficient arrangement is
distorted by politicians imposing duties and tariffs according to their
prejudices and xenophobia. Famines have occurred caused by drought, flood and
pestilence but could have been ameliorated with political will. More
devastating has been political interference in farming preventing the right
crops growing on available soils. The big disasters were man made. The power of
humans over other humans is exerted in many ways. I predict that medical care
will be used as food has already been used. Disease and starvation should never
be used to manipulate.
Yields will
continue to increase and plant’s resistance to infection will improve with
genetic modification. Arable farming is capital intensive with productivity
continuing to increase. Tractors are becoming self-driven and can run day and
night. A farmer need not have employees. All the tasks are done by contractors.
Combined harvesters now clear a field in less than a day whereas a hundred
years ago all the village spent a week cutting and threshing. Ploughing and
seeding is done in one pass in some cases. No fields are left fallow. Marginal
land is used for biomass fuel crops.
Recent
innovations have arisen in food substitutes. Vegetables are used to make a
product that looks and tastes like meat. The justification is a fear by some
people that animal muscle is unhealthy food and that killing animals to eat
them is cruel. Some argue, without evidence, that large animals generate
methane. Indeed, their digestion does generate these gases but the gases are
balanced by the replenished grasses on which the animals feed. Very likely the
new vegetable recipes will lead to processed food of its own identity rather
than pretending to be something else. This serves humans’ taste for variety and
a desire for healthy food. Living off garden produce is the healthiest option
pursued nowadays mainly by retired folk as a hobby rather than a serious
nutritional project.
If meat
production falls, the supply of skins and other by-products will fall affecting
other industries. Already we have seen furs driven off the market by
revelations of animal cruelty in the cause of fashion.
Developments
in processing food made of insects seem free of sympathy for insects. The
claims of high protein and minimal environmental impact are impressive. Mixed
with vegetable flavouring, we could have new factory prepared foods. Worms from
the soil are apparently nutritious and plentiful.
Vertical
farming is an urban based development for plants grown in trays illuminated by
artificial lighting for calculated hours to accelerate the growth of the plant.
Controlled irrigation produces crops in boxes which would otherwise have to be
transported across continents. They satisfy a demand for exotic foods.
Some foods
are under attack for being unhealthy. Refined sugar is the main culprit and
believed to cause obesity amongst people who used to be healthy when they were
farmers but now, they can spend all day sitting down they eat sweets and fail
to burn off the calories. Consumers know this but lack self-control over their
taste buds. In The Gulf, 80% of the people are diabetic. The previous
generation were farmers and pearl divers living off dates, fish and crops grown
where they found irrigation. Then came oil earnings and a complete change of
lifestyle. It is believed that they are genetically equipped for the life they
led for thousands of years and in one generation are not able to change. If
they could stop sitting down all day and go back to hard work under a hot sun their
health would improve but they don’t relish the prospect. The opportunities for
women and men to exercise are not equal.
Drinks are
also criticised. Those containing sugar are now being taxed to deter demand by
increasing the price. Mind altering drinks also face restrictions. Alcohol is
the main type with cannabis drinks entering the
market where the law allows. Drinkers’ behaviour is legally regulated and
measured to determine whether they can drive or work under the influence.
1.6. Packaging
Packaging
is an essential part of processed food. Its main role is hygiene then
preservation. Polyethylene does this well and cheaply, almost too cheaply
because polythene bags are used once and thrown away to become environmentally
damaging litter. The cost effectiveness of polythene versus paper versus cotton
is hugely in polythene’s favour. Paper uses trees and a lot of water and cotton
uses even more water. We need a material that performs the same as polythene
for a limited amount of time, say two months, before decomposing back to
vegetable matter. Plastics may always be needed. They have unique properties
difficult to replicate with metals or wood. Ingenuity is needed to meet the
specification demanded by an environmentally aware market.
Look at the
Äänekoski bioproducts mill run by Metsä in the centre of Finland’s
forests. It processes 6.5 million cubic meters of wood a year using everything
from the trees; nothing is wasted. They hope to find a better use for lignin, a
cell wall polymer. Already they have a wood-based food packaging material that
does not need a plastic liner so that it can be recycled without having to
separate oil-based materials. The mill makes its own electricity from
consumable waste and has a surplus it loads on to the Finnish power grid. That
makes the whole process sustainable with net-zero carbon emissions.
1.7. Transport
Humans have
always moved and in the modern world there is much travelling for the fun of
it. There are two aspects: moving things and moving people. Transporting things
is called trade. It happens because places of supply incur a lower cost than
places where the goods will be used. By lowering transport costs, trade
increases. Governments tax trade for income and to inhibit trade by increasing
the cost. Most international trade is by sea. Only high value, perishable items
can justify airfreight. We now have oranges available in European shops all
year. When the northern hemisphere growing season ends, supplies are flown in
from the southern hemisphere. This innovation is technical and logistical.
Retired passenger planes are converted to cargo planes to reduce the capital
costs.
Vertical
farming theoretically could compete with imported food but the scale of the
operation would have to greatly increase.
For sea
freight to get quicker requires more energy consumption that is not economical
when it is oil that is being burned. If the energy could be from wind and sun
the ship’s engines could be smaller for the same speed of travel. After all,
sailing ships preceded engine powered ships. There is much progress with sail
assisted ships with the sails managed by computers adjusting the sails.
Overland
travel could compete with sea journeys. There is now a rail link from China to
Russia and Europe. It is quicker and shorter than the sea journey and avoids
any political turmoil in the middle east. Whether a rail link would be viable
from Russia to America via Alaska, I don’t know. A tunnel between the two
continents would only be twice as long as the Channel Tunnel between England
and France. Railway tracks can be built in stilts penetrating below the
permafrost.
Warmer seas
are opening up the passages north of America and Russia to shipping for the
summer months at least. Reinforced hulls will be needed. The geography is
changing for bulk shipping. If oil ceases to be a major commodity, large oil
tankers will be redundant. Compressed gas is piped from Russia to Europe. If
electricity and heating come from wind and solar, less gas is needed and Russia
has less leverage over its customers who have different political views. Trade
always has political tensions.
Hovercraft
and dirigibles are two technologies that have failed to fulfil their promises
but so did electric vehicles before the improvement of batteries. If the skirts
on hovercraft were the weakness, would a better material bring this land and
sea vehicle back into use? Dirigibles occupy a gap between planes and ships.
Although they can carry large loads, are they still too small to compete with
huge container ships? Are they unable to fly in strong winds? Is this a
technology unlikely to go beyond the Bodensee where the airships are seen
floating around their base in Friedrichshafen?
Moving
people is best considered according to distance. Over short distances, walking
or cycling makes the person exercise and this is necessary to maintain health.
A big mistake in the last hundred years has been to assume that people prefer
to be idle. It probably goes back further. Royalty was waited upon so they were
fatter than the servants. Effort saving was a selling point and customers
bought labour saving devices until a household could be run easily allowing a
couple to go out to work to earn enough to pay for the devices.
The journey
to work for many is now done sitting down and at work they remain sitting down.
If the job entails thinking, the brain consumes energy leading to hunger but
without muscle movement the calories are stored as fat pending an energetic day
or famine which never comes. The best answer is to walk or cycle to work. Paths
and cycle lanes are needed. The shift in fashion has already happened making
clothes suitable for exercise acceptable. In the last year, more trainers have
been sold to women than high heels and the shift is notable amongst the young
who see no sense in shoes that are difficult to walk in. Men have stopped
wearing ties. Suits and jackets and going out of fashion.
Travelling
by car in and through a city is difficult. Mass transit is the answer. It can
take many forms. Underground railways were built many years ago and made cities
like London and Paris prosperous. It is in this area that there is unlimited
scope for ideas. They will all require funding so financial arguments will come
into play.
Travelling
longer distances within a country can be done by car but the ambition of
planners is to make rail journeys more attractive. Railways are a revolution
that replaced canal transport and are now undergoing a revival. They are now faster,
quieter and often too expensive compared to driving a fuel-efficient car with
four people in it. In other words, family travel is best done by car. It is
door to door. There is scope for new ideas for railways and non-road travel.
Suggestions include vertical take-off drone taxis but they will not have the
capacity to carry the thousands entering and leaving a city every day.
Not
travelling and communicating by video and phone instead is a practical
alternative for desk workers. The time saved can be leisure or work. This is
flexitime at its best. Video conferencing can be arranged for group meetings.
There is
much talk about electric vehicles. They are not innovative. Along with steam
power, they were on the road before combustion engine cars and were only
superseded because a tank of petrol (gasoline) contained more energy than the
equivalent sized electric battery. It is the improvement in batteries that are
innovative although lithium-ion technology has been around for many years.
Electric vehicles have fewer moving parts than combustion engine vehicles so
with increased production volumes should be cheaper to make.
1.8. Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI is a
computer adding to its own instructions by analysing incoming data. This is the
heart of the self-driving vehicle programme and already assists insurance
companies and lenders. It is a massive database that will expand its knowledge
and make decisions on behalf of humans who, it is believed, cannot amass as
much information.
A troubling
extension of computerisation is using sensors implanted in the brain to tap
into thoughts that can be converted into digital data to instruct a machine or
prosthetic limb. For disabled people, this is attractive but it bypasses the
ability of brain repair. We accept that the brain is an electrical impulse
transfer system. Providing pieces are not missing from trauma, inactive parts
of the brain can be re-started by pulsing with electro-magnetic fields.
To tap into
thoughts will cripple humanity. We are gregarious and need each other for
survival. Telepathy inherited from earlier forms in our evolutionary tree is
only present in a few people. For most of us, we depend on language for
communication. Anything else will isolate each from the other and destroy
society as we know it.
1.9. Building and construction
After
health care and food, housing has to be the most important requirement of
people. There is always said to be a shortage. That means, the properties on
the market cost more than most can afford. Houses can be bought or rented.
Either way, they need to be financed because few people can pay cash for a
house, especially those without an inheritance and entering employment.
Manipulating supply and demand will affect the price of houses.
The cost of
construction is a different matter. Lowering the cost increases the builder’s
profits and draws more builders into the market. The constraint then becomes
land which is limited by planning laws. Few countries permit house building
anywhere.
The
traditional way to build has been laying brick on brick with load bearing
walls. A variant of that is to assemble a frame of wood or steel to which a
roof is added and then walls attached with an outer skin of brick, stone or
wood.
Recent
developments have extended the concept of pre-fabrication originally developed
for emergency housing. Walls, floors and roofs are made in a factory with
wiring and pipes installed so that they can be delivered to the site in
flat-pack form on a lorry. The slabs are lifted into place and clicked and
screwed together to make a building in a few hours.
This is
called modular construction. It inevitably reduces individuality but variation
is achieved by making components interchangeable so that houses of different
sizes can be assembled from a kit of parts. Whether it is necessary for all
houses to be different is questionable. Most housing estates consist of only
three or four types of houses. Early industrial housing was entirely uniform
and accepted because there was no alternative. Inside that acceptance lay an
ambition to get a better house and when that happened the change in lifestyle
was disruptive. An example of a development to ease the transition to new
housing was the construction of the Byker Wall on Tyneside in the north of
England in the 1980s.
Innovation
is happening in pre-fabrication to reduce construction cost, allow variety and
improve reliability. Better insulation will minimise heating or cooling costs.
Hygiene improves with ample showers, toilets and cooking facilities. Sound
insulation is important to let different age groups live in the same house each
making their own entertainment noise.
Construction
of roads and railways is determined by demand which is a function of
distribution. Can the need to transport be reduced? Is it necessary to move
goods within, say, ten hours or will taking twice as long at a much lower cost
be just as effective? High cost infrastructure has to be planned in the wider
context of the whole economy and the desired lifestyle. The belief that cars
must be given priority was a mistake leading to urban planning that is making
life in today’s cities uncomfortable, expensive and unhealthy. The changes are large
scale involving politics, local and national, which are influenced by academic
advice.
1.10. Banking
Ever since
fiduciary money replaced barter, money supply has been managed by banks. When money
enters and leaves a bank, the bankers take a small slice of the value to cover
what they claim is their cost. They found they could pay depositors interest to
place money with them and lend that money to others at a higher price thereby
making a profit. Bankers in Switzerland now charge depositors for holding their
money in Swiss francs, an arrangement that is justifiable whilst the currency
holds or increases its value compared to other currencies that are weakening.
Innovation
in this form of banking is already advancing as fast or faster than the
imagination can dream. Crypto currencies have developed to bridge the gap
between gambling and investment and appeal to those unable to understand wealth
creation.
Scope for
innovation lies in replacing cash. Already cards embedded with digital
identification are used for purchases. Sending money can be done at high cost
through offices such as Western Union. Despite their charges, they are still
quicker and less expensive than conventional banks. There is thus a gap in the
market for a more efficient system. Accurate identification eliminating fraud
allows transfers.
2. Limited Change
2.1. Entertainment
Some areas
of modern life offer little scope for innovation. Surprisingly, one of these is
entertainment. How it is viewed has changed from live performances to large
screens and now small hand-held screens but what is viewed is much the same as
ever be it sport or music. Participation is as open or restricted as it has
always been with probably the only noticeable shift being away from the cruelty
of gladiator combat and animal killing. Fighting in the form of boxing and
wrestling persists and even rugby is a combat sport. Racing animals hardly
helps the animals but humans love it and always did. These sentiments can
change.
2.2. Clothing
Clothing is
preferred in most climates and changes in style relentlessly. These fashion
swings are only that, swings. Materials will change and there has been a shift
away from fur in favour of synthetics. Discarding garments before they are worn
out will become disreputable and create a market for making old clothes look
different. That need to show change is intrinsic to dressing and yet it still
requires the wearer to conform to the prevailing style. Sensing the trends
occupies many minds.
2.3. Family
The family
is an institution as old as humanity itself. That its members change is
recognised by divorce lawyers and dating agencies but the arrangement in which
children are reared will persist. This shapes housing and local travel requirements.
2.4. Education
Education
implants knowledge of matters deemed useful in employment. It is seldom
efficient and innovation is restricted by government regulation in much the
same way that healthcare is controlled. Change will be slow with more control,
not less. Higher education such as universities will develop according to how
they are financed. Companies are already paying academics to further their
message in support of their products.
2.5. Water
Water is
essential for life. There is no substitute and supply is limited. Desalination
is expensive and only serves coastal cities although most of the world’s people
live within a few miles of the sea which is rising. Wars have been fought over
water supplies and are likely in the future as dams restrict flow and climate
change disrupts rainfall patterns. Recycling waste water is already happening.
Towing icebergs from the poles to places where their melt water can be
collected has been calculated as not feasible.
2.6. Space travel
Space
travel is unrealistic. It entertains and attracts investors who play with money
rather than seek growth. The notion of living without a breathable atmosphere
and away from the Schumann resonance is dangerous to health. Problems on earth
have to be solved. There is no escape. Brilliant minds expose their limitations
when they talk seriously of being able to live in inhospitable places.
2.7. Retailing
There are
now two types of shops: actual and on line. An actual shop is in a building or
market stall where the customer is served by a human. On line shopping is done
through websites and payment with a bank card. This has been around for so many
years it is not now innovative. The general view is that in general, online
sales will be 15% of all sales with some sectors being zero online and others
almost 100% online. For example, it was thought that cars could be sold on line
but buyers prefer to visit a showroom and have a test drive. Houses are
advertised on line and buyers still want a person to talk to and show them
around a house. Many components such as electrical and engineering pieces are
almost entirely sold on line. One large warehouse can serve a country or
continent with online sales and distribution by next day delivery.
Websites
have replaced paper catalogues. Some sites include a sales section with a list
of shops that the customer can visit. The fundamentals of retailing have not
changed since market stalls were set up at cross roads. Websites are just
bigger stalls. They also supply businesses and expand the supplier’s reach into
the market. The innovation came when the internet was developed. Retail banks
have tried to move their business online and have closed branches. Whether that
will persist remains to be seen. There will always be a preference to meet face
to face.
Human
behaviour is best understood with reference to our origins. For most of human
existence, the day was spent hunting and gathering food. Evenings were social
times and nights were spent sleeping. It is the foraging instinct which
supports the retail industry. To a limited extent, browsing a website is
satisfying but never compares to the seeing and touching of actual shopping. It
is this inherent behaviour that will sustain shopping in towns and cities. The
layouts will change according to fashion swings just as clothing and pop music
changes whilst the fundamentals remain.
3. Conclusion
When the
human brain gained the ability to be ambitious, use tools and make changes the
disruptions have happened faster than the rate of evolution allows us to adapt.
This rate of change is now more than it has ever been in human history. For
most people, it leads to turmoil. The only way to survive or maybe prosper is
to know what is going on; be in the lead or avoid the danger.