6360abefb0d6371309cc9857
Abstract
Palliative care faces
significant challenges, including staff shortages, clinical uncertainty and
delayed recognition of patient deterioration. We here explore how artificial
intelligence (AI) can act as a “virtual specialist” to assist healthcare
providers in making better decisions, assessing patient risk and monitoring
symptoms in hospital and home-based settings. It examines how AI tools such as
machine learning, natural language processing and device-integrated monitoring
can improve predictions about patient decline, guide treatment decisions and
enhance symptom management. There is a special focus on how AI can identify and
alert transitions from stable to unstable health states and assist mid-level
clinicians in managing complex cases where specialist support may be limited.
We discuss key barriers to
implementation, including AI’s reduced accuracy in patients with multiple
illnesses, the need for transparency in complex ethical decisions and the
importance of integrating AI tools into clinical workflows to support rather
than replace human judgment. When designed responsibly, AI can help expand
access to quality palliative care and improve patient outcomes, particularly in
resource-limited environments.
Keywords: Palliative Care; Hospice
Care; Artificial Intelligence; Personalized Medicine; Remote Patient Monitoring;
Prognostication; Medical Ethics; Explainable AI
Introduction
Palliative care is
specialized medical care to relieve serious illnesses' symptoms, pain and
stress, regardless of the patient’s prognosis or disease stage. Its primary
goals include improving quality of life, providing relief from physical and
emotional suffering and addressing the complex psychosocial needs of both
patients and their families1.
Unlike hospice care, which is generally provided to patients expected to live
six months or less, palliative care can begin early in the disease process and
is delivered alongside curative or life-prolonging treatments2. Despite these recognized benefits, not
all patients have equal or timely access to palliative care, especially those
with multiple chronic conditions or those living in resource-limited areas3,4.
Healthcare providers in the
palliative care setting commonly manage patients with substantial clinical
complexity, as many patients suffer from multiple simultaneous comorbidities
and polypharmacy and experience unpredictable disease progression and difficult-to-control
symptoms. Collectively, these issues increase the demand for specialist input
and coordinated multidisciplinary care5,6.
These factors increase the need for specialist involvement and coordinated care
across different clinical teams. This situation frequently strains already
limited healthcare resources, resulting in fragmented care, delayed referrals
and inadequate management of distressing symptoms like pain, anxiety and
shortness of breath6,7. As a
result, there is a growing need for innovative tools to help healthcare
providers make quicker, more accurate and more effective clinical decisions in
palliative care8.
Artificial Intelligence
(AI) systems, including machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL)
algorithms, natural language processing (NLP) and predictive analytics, is
quickly becoming a powerful tool in healthcare9,10.
AI has already demonstrated promise across various clinical applications,
including diagnostic imaging, chronic disease management, predictive modelling
and clinical decision support11,12.
Given the complexities of palliative care, well-designed AI-driven systems have
the potential to support clinical decision-making. By functioning as scalable
"virtual specialists," AI can rapidly analyze vast and ever-expanding
patient data to deliver personalized care recommendations at a fraction of the
time, financial cost and workforce resources13.
Palliative care faces
challenges such as workforce shortages, clinical uncertainty and delays in
recognizing patient deterioration. We explore how AI can act as a virtual
specialist to assist clinicians in decision-making, risk assessment and symptom
monitoring across acute and home-based settings. It examines the role of
supervised ML, NLP and device-integrated monitoring in improving
prognostication, triage and individualized treatment planning. The discussion
highlights AI’s ability to detect subtle physiological and behavioural changes
that may indicate early and rapid clinical decline by referencing recent
peer-reviewed research. Additionally, it addresses key implementation
challenges, including reduced model accuracy in patients with multiple
illnesses, the need for transparency in ethically sensitive decisions and the
importance of ensuring AI aligns with institutional protocols and individual
clinician preferences. When developed thoughtfully and deployed responsibly,
AI-driven systems can enhance access to high-quality palliative care while
supporting clinician judgment in even the most complex and resource-constrained
environments.
Clinical and Operational
Challenges in Palliative Care
Patients receiving
palliative care frequently present with significant clinical complexity, often
characterized by multiple coexisting chronic illnesses such as cancer, chronic
heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or advanced
dementia. The simultaneous management of these comorbid conditions typically
involves polypharmacy, creating increased risks of adverse drug reactions,
drug-drug interactions and treatment complications, thereby elevating the
clinical complexity and burden for healthcare providers5,6,14.
In addition to
multimorbidity and polypharmacy, patients in palliative care commonly
experience unpredictable trajectories of disease progression and symptom
severity. Unlike acute care, where clinical progression and outcomes are
generally more predictable, palliative care requires ongoing reassessment and
adjustments. Symptoms such as pain, fatigue, breathlessness, shock, reduced
urine output, incontinence, delirium and restlessness can change rapidly and
unpredictably, making continuous evaluation vital. This variability adds layers
of uncertainty, complicating timely intervention and symptom management2,15. Furthermore, symptom experiences are
frequently subjective and individualized, necessitating careful and nuanced
clinical judgment16.
This complex interplay of
clinical factors necessitates comprehensive, multidisciplinary involvement
spanning multiple specialties, including palliative medicine, internal
medicine, oncology, nursing, pharmacy, social work and mental health services.
Coordinating such interdisciplinary care is inherently resource-intensive and
logistically challenging, particularly when patient conditions evolve swiftly
or when differing or outright contradictory specialist opinions make it difficult
to reach a unified decision8,17.
Resource constraints in
healthcare systems further exacerbate these challenges. Limited availability of
specialist expertise, fragmented communication among providers and workforce
shortages contribute significantly to fragmented patient care, delayed
referrals to appropriate palliative or hospice settings and inadequate symptom
relief. These constraints disproportionately affect patients residing in rural
or underserved communities, where specialist access and comprehensive
palliative services are often limited or non-existent4,18. Consequently, many patients experience
unnecessary hospitalizations, preventable emergency visits, increased
healthcare expenditures and reduced overall quality of life7.
Given the cumulative impact
of these clinical complexities and operational constraints, there is a pressing
need for innovative technological tools capable of enhancing the precision,
efficiency and responsiveness of clinical decision-making in palliative care.
Advanced solutions that enable clinicians to interpret clinical data quickly,
accurately anticipate symptom escalation and promptly implement personalized
interventions could substantially mitigate current barriers, ultimately
improving patient outcomes and alleviating healthcare resource strain13,19.
AI as a Virtual Specialist
Offering Clinical Decision Support and Prognostic Guidance
The heightened complexity
of cases managed in palliative care, coupled with workforce shortages and
budgetary constraints, has created a critical need for scalable,
decision-enhancing technologies at a reasonable financial cost. The whole
gambit of AI systems and predictive analytics are emerging as powerful tools
capable of synthesizing large volumes of structured and unstructured clinical
data to deliver real-time, context-sensitive recommendations9. As mentioned, our view is that these
technologies should be deployed as virtual specialists, augmenting human
decision-making rather than outright replacing it and supporting clinical
reasoning across diverse provider expertise.
Prognostication and
Real-Time Triage
AI applications in
palliative care have demonstrated significant advances in prognostic accuracy,
clinical triage and early intervention strategies. One of the most validated
uses is predicting survival trajectories, particularly in non-cancer
populations where physician estimates often overestimate life expectancy by
30–40%, leading to delayed referrals and underutilization of early palliative
interventions20,21. ML models
trained on longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data have shown superior
predictive accuracy for 6- and 12-month mortality, with some achieving area
under the curve (AUC) scores between 0.82 and 0.8922,23.
These models detect subtle physiologic and behavioural signals-such as
declining functional status, changes in vital signs and increased healthcare
utilization-that clinicians may overlook in routine practice24. AI-driven time-series analysis has
further refined hospice eligibility predictions, particularly in patients with
frailty, dementia or progressive multi-organ disease13.
Beyond prognosis, AI
enables real-time triage by stratifying patients according to clinical risk and
care needs. At Stanford University, Avati et al. developed the End-of-Life
Predictive Model, a DL algorithm trained on over two million EHRs to identify hospitalized
patients at high risk of death within 3 to 12 months. Integrated into hospital
systems, it generates real-time risk scores, prompting earlier palliative care
consults and improving operational efficiency in large medical centers23.
Additionally, AI-driven NLP
models have been developed to extract early indicators of clinical
deterioration from unstructured EHR text. A 2022 study by the MIT Clinical NLP
Group applied transformer-based DL models to tens of thousands of free-text
notes from palliative care patients in a tertiary academic hospital. The model
successfully identified latent distress signals, escalating symptoms and
functional decline-features often absent from structured data fields-and
achieved high sensitivity and specificity in predicting adverse events. These
findings highlight NLP’s potential to enhance palliative care referrals by
improving specificity and timeliness25.
By integrating structured
and unstructured data sources, AI strengthens palliative care decision-making-offering
improved prognostic insights, refining hospice eligibility, optimizing patient
triage and uncovering hidden deterioration risks. These innovations hold
particular promise for ensuring timely and effective palliative interventions.
Improved Clinician Behaviour
and Communication with Colleagues
Similarly, at the
University of Pennsylvania, researchers from the Penn Medicine Nudge Unit
developed the Advanced Care Planning Prompt, an ML-based tool embedded into
clinical workflows to predict six-month mortality among oncology patients. The
team paired this model with behavioural “nudges” such as peer comparison emails
and targeted messages to encourage oncologists to initiate serious illness
conversations. In their 2020 stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial involving
14,607 patients with advanced cancer, the intervention increased documentation
of goals-of-care discussions by 4.6 times compared to baseline22. This study was among the first to show
that integrating AI-generated mortality estimates with subtle behavioral
strategies could lead to meaningful changes in clinician behaviour and
communication practices, which are outcomes directly aligned with the goals of
palliative care.
Supporting Mid-Level
Clinicians in Complex Decision-Making
A less discussed but
increasingly critical application of AI lies in its potential to augment the
decision-making capabilities of mid-level providers such as nurse practitioners
(NPs) and physician associates (PAs). These providers are taking on an expanding
role in palliative care delivery, often leading consults and managing care
plans independently, especially in community-based and home-care models26. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of NPs
practicing in palliative and hospice settings increased by over 80% and by
2023, NPs constituted more than 50% of the provider workforce in many large
hospice agencies in the United States27.
This shift is partly driven
by cost-efficiency and workforce shortages, but mid-levels often enter the
field without the intensive residency or subspecialty fellowship training that
physicians undergo. As a result, they may encounter challenges in managing
high-acuity, multi-morbidity cases where diagnostic uncertainty and complex
symptomatology are common28.
AI-based clinical decision support systems can serve as real-time knowledge
augmentation tools, offering guideline-based recommendations, risk stratification
and tailored treatment options that support less-experienced providers in
delivering high-quality care. In a recent survey of palliative care NPs, over
70% expressed interest in AI-assisted platforms to help with medication
titration, prognostication and care prioritization, particularly in home-based
or solo-practice environments29.
By offering accessible and
easily understood expertise, AI may help bridge gaps in training and
experience, reduce variability in care quality and empower mid-level clinicians
to manage complex cases with greater confidence and precision, especially in
settings where supervising physicians are overextended or in regions with
limited access to specialty-trained providers30.
Continuous Learning and
Adaptive Expertise
Unlike static clinical
guidelines or rule-based algorithms, AI models can evolve continuously by
incorporating new data and feedback. This capability allows them to adapt to
changes in local patient populations, treatment practices and health system
structures over time. Retraining models periodically can enhance performance,
reduce biases introduced by outdated data and align outputs with the real-world
context in which they are deployed31.
In palliative care, where disease trajectories are frequently non-linear and
unpredictable and where off-label medication use is sometimes required to
manage complex symptoms, the adaptive nature of AI systems offers a distinct
advantage.
At the same time,
safeguarding clinical autonomy remains essential. While AI may offer
evidence-based insights, the final responsibility for decision-making must
reside with trained clinicians attuned to the patient’s goals, values and
psychosocial context. Transparent, interpretable AI systems are essential to
ensuring that clinicians can critically assess and apply algorithmic
recommendations without undermining the therapeutic relationship32.
Monitoring and
Deterioration Forecasting in Acute and Home-Based Palliative Care
Early recognition of
clinical deterioration is essential in palliative care to minimize patient
suffering, guide appropriate therapeutic decisions and prevent avoidable
hospitalizations or aggressive interventions inconsistent with patient goals.
AI offers a scalable solution for continuous risk stratification by
synthesizing high-dimensional data from EHRs, bedside monitors, wearable
sensors and life-sustaining devices such as ventilators, dialysis machines,
cardiac telemetry, etc. By identifying subtle physiologic trends and deviations
often undetectable through conventional unintelligent and non-automated
monitoring, AI can alert clinicians to early signs of decline, prompting timely
reassessment and supportive intervention.
This capability is
especially critical in home-based palliative care, where continuous in-person
evaluation is often infeasible. Symptom-based deterioration in chronic
illnesses such as advanced heart failure, COPD and end-stage renal disease
frequently goes unrecognized until the onset of acute decompensation. We
foresee AI-enabled monitoring systems eventually integrating with home medical
devices such as dialysis machines, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP)
units and mobile electrocardiogram (ECG) monitors, allowing the detection of
subtle anomalies in biometric trends well before patients or caregivers become
aware of pertinent clinical changes33.
This early warning capacity supports anticipatory guidance, the timely
adjustment of care goals and the rapid initiation of palliative interventions
when needed, ultimately reducing avoidable emergency visits and improving
alignment with patient preferences for care at home.
AI-Based Clinical Support
for Ventilated and Critically Ill Palliative Patients
Patients in palliative care
who require mechanical ventilation, dialysis or other life-sustaining
interventions often present with rapidly evolving and multifactorial clinical
deterioration. AI-driven systems are increasingly being investigated for their
capacity to support high-stakes, time-sensitive decision-making in these scenarios.
A landmark study by
Komorowski et al. introduced the “AI Clinician,” a reinforcement learning model
trained on data from over 96,000 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in the
MIMIC-III database. The model incorporated 46 routinely collected clinical variables
to recommend individualized treatment strategies for sepsis, a leading cause of
mortality in ICU settings. Remarkably, patients whose care aligned closely with
the AI’s recommendations had higher survival rates than those managed using
conventional physician decision-making strategies. The study demonstrated the
feasibility of using reinforcement learning to develop adaptive, data-driven
clinical decision-support tools that outperform rule-based guidelines in
complex, high-risk conditions34.
Expanding on this, studies
using the publicly available MIMIC-IV database have explored the application of
ML algorithms to anticipate complications in mechanically ventilated patients.
For instance, Johnson et al. utilized gradient boosting and recurrent neural
networks to forecast adverse respiratory events, including oxygenation failure
and unplanned reintubation, by analysing real-time ventilator parameters,
arterial blood gases and vital signs. Their models achieved AUC values ranging
from 0.78 to 0.86, demonstrating strong predictive performance. These early
warning systems, when embedded into clinical workflows, may allow providers to
anticipate decompensation up to 48 hours in advance, offering a critical window
to modify ventilator settings or initiate supportive therapies before
irreversible deterioration occurs35.
Together, these studies
underscore the growing role of AI in managing critically ill patients with
advanced disease of fluctuating severity, including those receiving palliative
care in intensive care settings. By continuously analysing real-time
physiologic data from devices such as ventilators, infusion pumps, dialysis
machines and electrocardiogram monitors, AI models can detect early signs of
clinical deterioration before they become apparent through standard monitoring.
This advanced detection capability can reduce the cognitive load on ICU teams,
particularly in resource-constrained environments or during surges in patient
volume. It also supports timely clinical responses, whether through escalation
of care or thoughtful de-escalation that aligns with the patient's values and
goals, which are essential in high-acuity palliative care. As these
technologies evolve, their integration into routine workflows may improve the
accuracy and responsiveness of palliative interventions, especially for
patients who may struggle to express their changing care preferences.
AI-Enabled Wearable Devices
and Remote Monitoring in Palliative Care
Recent advances in wearable
technologies have opened new frontiers for real-time patient monitoring in
palliative and end-of-life care. In hospice settings, a 2022 prospective
observational study conducted at Taipei Medical University Hospital investigated
the utility of wearable actigraphy devices-which continuously track physical
activity and sleep-wake cycles using motion sensors typically worn on the
wrist. The study involved 68 terminally ill patients and found that movement
metrics such as accumulated angle and spin values positively correlated with
patient outcomes. Patients who survived to discharge exhibited significantly
higher activity levels compared to those who died during their inpatient
hospice stay, suggesting that continuous actigraphy-based monitoring may
provide meaningful insights into prognosis and functional decline36,37.
Building on this premise, a
2023 prospective cohort study conducted at National Taiwan University Hospital
evaluated the feasibility of using wearable devices coupled with ML to predict
7-day mortality in patients with terminal cancer receiving end-of-life care.
Participants were equipped with smartwatches that continuously collected
physiological data, including heart rate, sleep duration, step count and blood
oxygen saturation. The study employed various ML models, with the extreme
gradient boosting (XGBoost) classifier achieving the highest performance,
demonstrating an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)
of 0.96, an F1-score of 78.5% and an accuracy of 93%. These findings highlight
the potential of integrating wearable technology with AI capabilities to
provide timely prognostic information, thereby supporting clinical
decision-making and personalized care in end-of-life settings38.
These efforts are
particularly valuable in home-based palliative care, where continuous in-person
clinical monitoring is often impractical. A 2024 systematic review published in
Palliative Medicine analysed 20 studies on electronic symptom monitoring in
home-based palliative care. The review found that most patients positively
engaged with electronic symptom monitoring, which could improve their quality
of life, physical and emotional well-being and symptom scores without
significantly increasing costs. However, the review also noted variability in
the reported data and inadequate statistical power in some studies, limiting
firm conclusions about the effects on outcomes like survival, hospital
admissions, length of stay, emergency visits and adverse events. Despite these
limitations, the integration of electronic symptom monitoring holds potential
for enhancing patient-reported outcomes and decreasing hospital visits and
costs in home-based palliative care settings39.
Collectively, these
technologies illustrate a shift toward more proactive, data-driven care models
in palliative medicine. By enabling continuous, passive monitoring in
low-resource settings, AI-augmented wearables and remote sensors represent an
important avenue for reducing disparities in end-of-life care access and
improving responsiveness to the needs of critically-ill patients outside of
traditional inpatient settings.
Discussion:
Oversimplification Erodes Reliability and Clinician Trust
As AI tools are
increasingly adopted in palliative care, questions about their reliability,
explainability and ethical-legal defensibility are receiving increased
attention. A key concern is that many models are developed to solve narrow,
task-specific problems using datasets mainly composed of patients with a single
dominant illness. However, palliative care patients frequently present with
multiple interacting comorbidities, which complicates both symptom
interpretation and care prioritization. This issue was illustrated in 2021 by
Rajkomar, et al., which evaluated a DL model trained to predict in-hospital
mortality using EHR data across multiple hospitals. The model achieved high
overall predictive accuracy, but its performance was significantly lower in
patients with multiple chronic conditions, especially when the training data
lacked similar multimorbidity profiles. The authors concluded that algorithmic
reliability decreased as clinical complexity increased, emphasizing the need
for utilizing training data with multimodal inputs taken from high-acuity
populations like those receiving palliative care40.
Explainability and
Ethical-legal Defensibility
Another important
consideration is explainability. Clinicians must understand and verbalize the
rationale behind AI-generated recommendations, especially when these outputs
relate to sensitive decisions such as withholding or withdrawing
life-sustaining therapy. A 2022 study by Tonekaboni, et al. explored how
clinicians engaged with explainable ML models designed for ICU decision
support. The authors found that models offering interpretable outputs-such as
visual explanations of variable importance or logical decision pathways-significantly
increased clinician trust and willingness to act on AI recommendations41. This transparency is crucial in the
context of palliative care, where decisions can carry ethical and legal weight,
especially around end-of-life choices. If a clinician’s decision were to be
scrutinized in court, the ability to articulate how an AI-supported
recommendation aligned with clinical judgment and was based on understandable
evidence could form an essential part of a legal defense in negligence claims.
As it stands now, many DL
models operate as “black boxes," generating predictions or treatment
recommendations without sufficiently explaining the underlying rationale. This
haziness can erode clinician trust and hinder shared decision-making-especially
in palliative care, where treatment decisions require individualized scrutiny
and ethically complex judgment and often carry legal implications. A 2021
scoping review by Panch, et al. found that clinicians across specialties
consistently identified limited interpretability as a major barrier to adopting
AI tools in sensitive contexts such as end-of-life care. In these settings,
recommendations must be medically, ethically and legally defensible. Panch and
colleagues emphasized that the greatest risk posed by AI is not malicious
intent but flawed design and implementation, particularly when models are used
in clinical environments that differ significantly from those on which they
were trained42. A poorly matched
model may generate outputs incompatible with the patient’s clinical reality or
overtly stated care preferences. To prevent such mismatches, prioritization of
transparency in algorithmic reasoning and the ability to adapt to diverse
clinical scenarios should be the focus of future advancements.
Aligning Protocols and
Preferences for Seamless Workflow Integration
Human factors research
emphasizes that for AI decision support tools to be practical in palliative
care, they must be tailored to the specific protocols, guidelines and workflows
of the hospital systems in which they are deployed. Carayon and colleagues have
highlighted how a lack of contextual awareness can lead to two extremes:
clinicians may disregard AI recommendations when they seem disconnected from
local practices or they may over-rely on them when those recommendations appear
easy to implement, even if they do not fully address the patient’s clinical
complexity43. To avoid common
pitfalls, AI systems must be designed to reflect each institution’s standards
of care while remaining adaptable to the unique decision-making styles of
individual clinicians. This means ensuring that outputs comply with established
protocols and guidelines and presenting recommendations in formats that align
with how different providers interpret and act on clinical information. When AI
tools are integrated into clinical environments in a way that respects both
institutional workflows and human cognitive habits, they are more likely to
support context-sensitive decisions, uphold provider autonomy and reinforce
patient-centered care.
Conclusion
Integrating artificial
intelligence into palliative care offers a meaningful opportunity to improve
decision-making, enhance prognostic accuracy and support timely,
patient-centered interventions. Acting as virtual specialists, AI tools can
help clinicians manage complex cases more effectively, especially in settings
with limited specialist access. From real-time data analysis in intensive care
units to remote monitoring via wearable devices, AI shows strong potential in
detecting early signs of clinical decline and guiding appropriate responses.
These innovations may reduce unnecessary hospitalizations, improve resource use
and support consistent, compassionate care across diverse settings.
Still, adopting AI in
palliative care demands thoughtful attention to interpretability, bias and
ethical accountability issues. Clinicians must understand and justify
AI-generated recommendations, particularly when making sensitive decisions
about life-sustaining treatments or end-of-life goals. Transparent design,
context-aware adaptation and collaborative development with input from
healthcare providers and ethicists ensure that AI supports, rather than
undermines, human judgment. When designed responsibly, AI can help deliver
high-quality care without sacrificing the values of dignity, empathy and
individualized attention that define palliative medicine.
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